|
|
|
|
|
Do Your
Initials Spell Earlier Death? New Pomona College Study
Contradicts Previous Findings.
|
 |
A new study by Stilian Morrison ’05 and Professor Gary Smith
has found that initials have no connection to mortality,
contradicting earlier evidence that having a “bad” monogram,
such as PIG or ZIT, makes one more likely to die at a
younger age than someone blessed with initials such as ACE
or VIP.
The original 1999 study, reported in the Journal of
Psychosomatic Research, had found that males with positive
initials lived 4.5 years longer than a control group of
males with neutral initials, while males with negative
initials lived 2.8 fewer years. The earlier study also found
that females with positive initials lived 3.4 more years
than those in the neutral group.
In the new study, published in the September/October 2005
issue of Psychosomatic Medicine, Morrison and Smith
examined California death records from 1905 to 2005 to
confirm whether a statistical relationship existed between
initials and longevity.
Morrison and Smith asked a group of students, faculty and
friends to rank the initials that they would be most happy
and least happy to have. The top positive initials were ACE,
ICE, JOY, VIP, CEO, GEM, FLY, FOX, HIP, WIT and WIN. The top
negative initials included KKK, DIE, ZIT, PIG, DUM, RAT,
SOB, GAS, BAD, HOR, BUM and SIN.
The researchers then analyzed mortality data of white,
non-Hispanic people who died from 1960 to 2003 and for all
races from 1905 to 1959. The records included 4,201 males
with positive initials and 6,485 males with negative
initials; 2,798 females with positive initials and 4,533
females with negative initials.
Grouping people by year of birth, Morrison and Smith
compared average age of death. Males with negative initials
lived slightly longer, on average, than those with positive
initials, and the reverse was true for females, though
neither difference was statistically significant.
Morrison and Smith attribute the new findings to grouping
records by year of birth, rather than year of death, which
they say can be misleading if the frequency of specific
initial choices changes over time.
One problem with making such comparisons is how language
useage and slang expressions change over time; 50 years ago,
ICE and FLY were not considered compliments.
“We were inspired to conduct the study,” explains Smith,
“because the claim of the seven-year difference in average
age at death of people with good and bad initials seemed
implausible. It shouldn’t be out there that if you give kids
the initials LUV; they’ll live seven years longer. A little
bit of statistical detective work, and we found the flaw.”
“Stilian and I used a survey to construct an independent
list of positive and negative initials. We also used
mortality simulations to show that average-age-at-death
calculations for decedents grouped by death year can be
misleading if the frequency of initials changes over time.
Grouping decedents by birth year solves this problem and
provides a more natural test of whether there is a
statistical relationship between initials and longevity.”
Morrison, who is a mathematical economics major, began
working with Smith at the end of his freshman year. “This
study originated from my first statistics course at Pomona
College and was a practical application of some of my early
quantitative skill sets. It inspired me to take further
courses related to statistical theory (such as probability)
and its quantitative focus fuelled my interest in a
concentration towards business and finance. Both the course
and the resulting study enabled me to be more critical and
questioning of statistical works, being wary of data mining
as well as questionable models and hypotheses.”
Smith, who is the Fletcher Jones Professor Economics at
Pomona College, is author of several economics textbooks and
more than 50 articles. Among those are several papers, some
co-authored with students, debunking various claims. Those
include the claims that famous people can postpone theirs
deaths until after their birthday; Jews can postpone their
deaths until after Passover; elderly Chinese women can
postpone their deaths until after the Harvest Moon festival;
Chinese-Americans and Japanese Americans have abnormally
high cardiac mortality on the 4th day of the month; and
Chinese Americans born in fire years tend to die of heart
disease. “All of these claims had fatal statistical flaws,”
notes Smith.
Psychosomatic Medicine is the official journal of the
American Psychosomatic Society and one of the most
frequently cited journals in psychology and psychiatry. One
reviewer found that Morrison and Smith’s article was “a
valuable methodological contribution that may alert
researchers to the need to carefully design issues and
possible sources of bias that could lead to unfounded
conclusions."
Pomona College, one of the nation’s premier liberal arts
institutions, offers a comprehensive program in the arts,
humanities, social sciences and natural sciences. Its
hallmarks include small classes, close relationships between
students and faculty, and a range of opportunities for
student research. More information about Pomona College can
be found on the Web at www.pomona.edu
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quick Links |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Explore Pomona's Web |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Find It |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Search |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
